Flora II 10–1 Tallinna FC Zapoos: Result & Stats

Flora II

10 – 1

Tallinna FC Zapoos

7/28/2020

Cup · 64th FinalsA. Le Coq Arena I muru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flora II95%

×Draw3%

Tallinna FC Zapoos2%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flora IIExpected goals in this matchTallinna FC Zapoos

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

8.30

1.48

Flora II

8.30

Tallinna FC Zapoos

1.48

Flora II creates 461% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

9.43

creates per match

1.83

1.14

allows per match

7.17

creates per match

Flora II

9.43

Tallinna FC Zapoos

1.83

allows per match

Flora II

1.14

Tallinna FC Zapoos

7.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par

Tallinna FC Zapoos+0.00on par

Total goals

Over99
Under1

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Tallinna FC Zapoos →

0–00%

0–10%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–00%

1–10%

1–20%

1–30%

1–40%

2–01%

2–11%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 4–1 (6%) · grid covers 30% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

100%0%1.5

100%0%2.5

99%1%3.5

96%4%4.5

88%12%

Double chance

Flora II or draw

98%

Flora II or Tallinna FC Zapoos

97%

Draw or Tallinna FC Zapoos

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+

87%

Tallinna FC Zapoos wins by 2+

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals

100%

Flora II 2+ goals

99%

Flora II 3+ goals

96%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 1+ goals

77%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 2+ goals

43%

Tallinna FC Zapoos 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)

98%

Tallinna FC Zapoos (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

77%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 9.43, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Tallinna FC Zapoos away — creates 1.83, concedes 7.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 9.43 + Tallinna FC Zapoos defence 7.17 → ÷2 → 8.30

Tallinna FC Zapoos attack 1.83 + Flora II defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 95%?"

Flora II scores more

95%

level

Tallinna FC Zapoos scores more

Flora II at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff