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Flora II vs Nõmme Kalju II — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Nõmme Kalju II
Nõmme Kalju II
M. Kukkonen 89', 25'
K. Lorenz 19'
J. Lillemets 34'
3/19/2026Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 3Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Flora II57%
×Draw19%
Nõmme Kalju II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
2.42
Nõmme Kalju II
1.52

Flora II creates 59% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 27 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.35
Nõmme Kalju II
1.56

allows per match

Flora II
1.47
Nõmme Kalju II
2.48

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
Nõmme Kalju II+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Nõmme Kalju II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
76%
Flora II or Nõmme Kalju II
81%
Draw or Nõmme Kalju II
43%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
36%
Nõmme Kalju II wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
91%
Flora II 2+ goals
69%
Flora II 3+ goals
43%
Nõmme Kalju II 1+ goals
78%
Nõmme Kalju II 2+ goals
45%
Nõmme Kalju II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
71%
Nõmme Kalju II (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.35, concedes 1.47 · 119 matches

Nõmme Kalju II away — creates 1.56, concedes 2.48 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.35 + Nõmme Kalju II defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.42

Nõmme Kalju II attack 1.56 + Flora II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Flora II scores more
57%
level
19%
Nõmme Kalju II scores more
24%

Flora II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
K. Lorenz↳ J. Silm
25'
M. Kukkonen↳ E. Paltser
34'
J. Lillemets↳ K. Sarapuu
89'
M. Kukkonen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flora II vs Nõmme Kalju II

Flora II beat Nõmme Kalju II 3-1 in Esiliiga A on March 19, 2026.

Goals: K. Lorenz (19'), M. Kukkonen (25', 89'), J. Lillemets (34').

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.