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Flora II vs Elva — Esiliiga A 2026

Flora II
Flora II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elva
Elva
5/29/2025Esiliiga AEsiliiga A · Round 13Sportland Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 125+ matches

Flora II54%
×Draw21%
Elva25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flora II
2.15
Elva
1.42

Flora II creates 51% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 126 away

creates per match

Flora II
2.39
Elva
1.40

allows per match

Flora II
1.43
Elva
1.90

finishing

Flora II+0.00on par
Elva+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flora II ↓

Elva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Flora II or draw
75%
Flora II or Elva
79%
Draw or Elva
46%

Winning margin

Flora II wins by 2+
32%
Elva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flora II 1+ goals
88%
Flora II 2+ goals
63%
Flora II 3+ goals
36%
Elva 1+ goals
76%
Elva 2+ goals
41%
Elva 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Flora II (draw refunded)
68%
Elva (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flora II at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.43 · 125 matches

Elva away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.90 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flora II attack 2.39 + Elva defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.15

Elva attack 1.40 + Flora II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Flora II scores more
54%
level
21%
Elva scores more
25%

Flora II at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Flora II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Esiliiga A: Flora II 0–1 Elva

Elva beat Flora II 1-0 in Esiliiga A on May 29, 2025.

The match was played at Sportland Arena in Tallinn.