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Flint vs Stabæk II — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Stabæk II
Stabæk II
8/19/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint33%
×Draw21%
Stabæk II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.79
Stabæk II
2.11

Stabæk II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

creates per match

Flint
1.62
Stabæk II
1.68

allows per match

Flint
2.54
Stabæk II
1.95

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Stabæk II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Stabæk II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Flint or draw
54%
Flint or Stabæk II
79%
Draw or Stabæk II
67%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
17%
Stabæk II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
83%
Flint 2+ goals
53%
Flint 3+ goals
26%
Stabæk II 1+ goals
88%
Stabæk II 2+ goals
62%
Stabæk II 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
42%
Stabæk II (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Stabæk II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + Stabæk II defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.79

Stabæk II attack 1.68 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Flint scores more
33%
level
21%
Stabæk II scores more
46%

Stabæk II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Stabæk II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs Stabæk II

Flint and Stabæk II drew 1-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on August 19, 2025.