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Flint vs SF Grei — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
SF Grei
SF Grei
7/19/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint30%
×Draw20%
SF Grei50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.81
SF Grei
2.38

SF Grei creates 31% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
1.62
SF Grei
2.23

allows per match

Flint
2.54
SF Grei
2.00

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
SF Grei+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

SF Grei →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Flint or draw
50%
Flint or SF Grei
80%
Draw or SF Grei
70%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
15%
SF Grei wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
84%
Flint 2+ goals
54%
Flint 3+ goals
27%
SF Grei 1+ goals
91%
SF Grei 2+ goals
68%
SF Grei 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
37%
SF Grei (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

SF Grei away — creates 2.23, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + SF Grei defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

SF Grei attack 2.23 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flint scores more
30%
level
20%
SF Grei scores more
50%

SF Grei at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SF Grei will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flint 3 – 1 SF Grei

Flint beat SF Grei 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on July 19, 2025.