Flint 1–3 Pors Grenland II: Result & Stats

Flint

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Pors Grenland II

5/11/2025

3. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint64%

×Draw16%

Pors Grenland II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlintExpected goals in this matchPors Grenland II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

1.73

Flint

3.12

Pors Grenland II

1.73

Flint creates 80% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

1.62

creates per match

0.92

2.54

allows per match

4.62

creates per match

Flint

1.62

Pors Grenland II

0.92

allows per match

Flint

2.54

Pors Grenland II

4.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flint+0.00on par

Pors Grenland II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Pors Grenland II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

70%30%4.5

51%49%

Double chance

Flint or draw

80%

Flint or Pors Grenland II

84%

Draw or Pors Grenland II

36%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+

45%

Pors Grenland II wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals

95%

Flint 2+ goals

81%

Flint 3+ goals

59%

Pors Grenland II 1+ goals

82%

Pors Grenland II 2+ goals

52%

Pors Grenland II 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)

77%

Pors Grenland II (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Pors Grenland II away — creates 0.92, concedes 4.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + Pors Grenland II defence 4.62 → ÷2 → 3.12

Pors Grenland II attack 0.92 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Flint scores more

64%

level

16%

Pors Grenland II scores more

20%

Flint at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff