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Flint vs Pors Grenland — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
1 – 3
Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland
10/16/20213. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 11Flint ESSO Arena D KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flint31%
×Draw22%
Pors Grenland47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.52
Pors Grenland
1.91

Pors Grenland creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

creates per match

Flint
2.00
Pors Grenland
2.15

allows per match

Flint
1.67
Pors Grenland
1.05

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Pors Grenland+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Pors Grenland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Flint or draw
53%
Flint or Pors Grenland
78%
Draw or Pors Grenland
69%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
14%
Pors Grenland wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
78%
Flint 2+ goals
45%
Flint 3+ goals
20%
Pors Grenland 1+ goals
85%
Pors Grenland 2+ goals
57%
Pors Grenland 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
40%
Pors Grenland (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Pors Grenland away — creates 2.15, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.00 + Pors Grenland defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.52

Pors Grenland attack 2.15 + Flint defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flint scores more
31%
level
22%
Pors Grenland scores more
47%

Pors Grenland at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Pors Grenland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs Pors Grenland

Pors Grenland beat Flint 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on October 16, 2021.

The match was played at Flint ESSO Arena D KG in Tolvsrød.