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Flint vs Kvik Halden — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Kvik Halden
Kvik Halden
9/27/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 22

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint20%
×Draw18%
Kvik Halden62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.47
Kvik Halden
2.66

Kvik Halden creates 81% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
1.62
Kvik Halden
2.77

allows per match

Flint
2.54
Kvik Halden
1.31

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Kvik Halden+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Kvik Halden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Flint or draw
38%
Flint or Kvik Halden
82%
Draw or Kvik Halden
80%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
9%
Kvik Halden wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
77%
Flint 2+ goals
43%
Flint 3+ goals
18%
Kvik Halden 1+ goals
93%
Kvik Halden 2+ goals
74%
Kvik Halden 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
24%
Kvik Halden (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

Kvik Halden away — creates 2.77, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + Kvik Halden defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.47

Kvik Halden attack 2.77 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 2.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Flint scores more
20%
level
18%
Kvik Halden scores more
62%

Kvik Halden at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kvik Halden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs Kvik Halden

Kvik Halden beat Flint 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on September 27, 2025.