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Flint vs KFUM II — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
2 – 4
KFUM II
KFUM II
9/7/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 20Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint47%
×Draw20%
KFUM II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
2.27
KFUM II
1.89

Flint creates 20% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
2.08
KFUM II
1.85

allows per match

Flint
1.92
KFUM II
2.46

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
KFUM II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

KFUM II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Flint or draw
67%
Flint or KFUM II
80%
Draw or KFUM II
53%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
28%
KFUM II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
90%
Flint 2+ goals
66%
Flint 3+ goals
39%
KFUM II 1+ goals
85%
KFUM II 2+ goals
56%
KFUM II 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
59%
KFUM II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

KFUM II away — creates 1.85, concedes 2.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + KFUM II defence 2.46 → ÷2 → 2.27

KFUM II attack 1.85 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Flint scores more
47%
level
20%
KFUM II scores more
33%

Flint at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs KFUM II

KFUM II beat Flint 4-2 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on September 7, 2024.

The match was played at Flint ESSO Arena A KG in Tolvsrød.