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Flint vs IF Ready — 3. Division - Girone 6 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
IF Ready
IF Ready
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 63. Division - Girone 6 · Group 6 - 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint43%
×Draw21%
IF Ready37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
2.12
IF Ready
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
1.62
IF Ready
1.38

allows per match

Flint
2.54
IF Ready
2.62

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
IF Ready+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

IF Ready →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Flint or draw
63%
Flint or IF Ready
79%
Draw or IF Ready
57%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
24%
IF Ready wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
88%
Flint 2+ goals
62%
Flint 3+ goals
35%
IF Ready 1+ goals
86%
IF Ready 2+ goals
58%
IF Ready 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
54%
IF Ready (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 1.62, concedes 2.54 · 13 matches

IF Ready away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.62 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 1.62 + IF Ready defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.12

IF Ready attack 1.38 + Flint defence 2.54 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flint scores more
43%
level
21%
IF Ready scores more
37%

Flint at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flint vs IF Ready

Flint beat IF Ready 3-0 in 3. Division - Girone 6 on March 29, 2025.