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Flint vs Frigg — 3. Division - Girone 3 2020

Flint
Flint
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Frigg
Frigg
5/20/20243. Division - Girone 33. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 7Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint32%
×Draw19%
Frigg49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint
1.97
Frigg
2.46

Frigg creates 25% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flint
2.08
Frigg
3.00

allows per match

Flint
1.92
Frigg
1.85

finishing

Flint+0.00on par
Frigg+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Frigg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Flint or draw
51%
Flint or Frigg
81%
Draw or Frigg
68%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+
16%
Frigg wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals
86%
Flint 2+ goals
58%
Flint 3+ goals
31%
Frigg 1+ goals
91%
Frigg 2+ goals
70%
Frigg 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)
39%
Frigg (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Frigg away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + Frigg defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.97

Frigg attack 3.00 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Flint scores more
32%
level
19%
Frigg scores more
49%

Frigg at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Frigg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 3: Flint 1–2 Frigg

Frigg beat Flint 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 3 on May 20, 2024.

The match was played at Flint ESSO Arena A KG in Tolvsrød.