Flint 3–2 Åssiden IF: Result & Stats

Flint

FT

3 – 2

Åssiden IF

9/25/2021

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 8Flint ESSO Arena D KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Flint67%

×Draw16%

Åssiden IF17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlintExpected goals in this matchÅssiden IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.92

1.42

Flint

2.92

Åssiden IF

1.42

Flint creates 106% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

1.17

1.67

allows per match

3.83

creates per match

Flint

2.00

Åssiden IF

1.17

allows per match

Flint

1.67

Åssiden IF

3.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flint+0.00on par

Åssiden IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over80
Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Åssiden IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

80%20%3.5

62%38%4.5

42%58%

Double chance

Flint or draw

83%

Flint or Åssiden IF

84%

Draw or Åssiden IF

33%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+

47%

Åssiden IF wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals

94%

Flint 2+ goals

78%

Flint 3+ goals

55%

Åssiden IF 1+ goals

76%

Åssiden IF 2+ goals

41%

Åssiden IF 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)

80%

Åssiden IF (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Åssiden IF away — creates 1.17, concedes 3.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.00 + Åssiden IF defence 3.83 → ÷2 → 2.92

Åssiden IF attack 1.17 + Flint defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Flint scores more

67%

level

16%

Åssiden IF scores more

17%

Flint at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff