Flint 3–2 Åskollen: Result & Stats

Flint

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Åskollen

8/17/2024

3. Division - Girone 3 · Group 3 - 17Flint ESSO Arena A KG

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flint64%

×Draw17%

Åskollen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlintExpected goals in this matchÅskollen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.00

1.65

Flint

3.00

Åskollen

1.65

Flint creates 82% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

2.08

creates per match

1.38

1.92

allows per match

3.92

creates per match

Flint

2.08

Åskollen

1.38

allows per match

Flint

1.92

Åskollen

3.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flint+0.00on par

Åskollen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over84
Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint ↓

Åskollen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–16%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

84%16%3.5

67%33%4.5

48%52%

Double chance

Flint or draw

81%

Flint or Åskollen

83%

Draw or Åskollen

36%

Winning margin

Flint wins by 2+

44%

Åskollen wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Flint 1+ goals

95%

Flint 2+ goals

79%

Flint 3+ goals

56%

Åskollen 1+ goals

81%

Åskollen 2+ goals

49%

Åskollen 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Flint (draw refunded)

77%

Åskollen (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

Åskollen away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint attack 2.08 + Åskollen defence 3.92 → ÷2 → 3.00

Åskollen attack 1.38 + Flint defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Flint scores more

64%

level

17%

Åskollen scores more

19%

Flint at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Flint will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff