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Flint City Bucks vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — USL League Two 2018

Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
PST
15:00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
6/9/2020USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 25Atwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Flint City Bucks62%
×Draw21%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint City Bucks
2.00
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
0.93

Flint City Bucks creates 115% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 5 away

creates per match

Flint City Bucks
2.80
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.00

allows per match

Flint City Bucks
0.86
Cincinnati Dutch Lions
1.20

finishing

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par
Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint City Bucks ↓

Cincinnati Dutch Lions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Flint City Bucks or draw
83%
Flint City Bucks or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
79%
Draw or Cincinnati Dutch Lions
38%

Winning margin

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
38%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
86%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
59%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
32%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals
61%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals
24%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
79%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint City Bucks at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.86 · 49 matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint City Bucks attack 2.80 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 2.00

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 1.00 + Flint City Bucks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Flint City Bucks scores more
62%
level
21%
Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more
17%

Flint City Bucks at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flint City Bucks vs Cincinnati Dutch Lions — Match Preview

Flint City Bucks face Cincinnati Dutch Lions on June 9, 2020 in this USL League Two fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flint City Bucks host Cincinnati Dutch Lions at Atwood Stadium (Flint, Michigan).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.