Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3–1 Flint City Bucks

Cincinnati Dutch Lions

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Flint City Bucks

6/30/2019

USL League Two · Round 7Northern Kentucky University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cincinnati Dutch Lions42%

×Draw22%

Flint City Bucks36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cincinnati Dutch LionsExpected goals in this matchFlint City Bucks

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.72

Cincinnati Dutch Lions

1.88

Flint City Bucks

1.72

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 51 away

2.67

creates per match

2.10

1.33

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions

2.67

Flint City Bucks

2.10

allows per match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions

1.33

Flint City Bucks

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cincinnati Dutch Lions+0.00on par

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cincinnati Dutch Lions ↓

Flint City Bucks →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or draw

64%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions or Flint City Bucks

78%

Draw or Flint City Bucks

58%

Winning margin

Cincinnati Dutch Lions wins by 2+

23%

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 1+ goals

85%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 2+ goals

56%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions 3+ goals

29%

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals

82%

Flint City Bucks 2+ goals

51%

Flint City Bucks 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Cincinnati Dutch Lions (draw refunded)

54%

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

Flint City Bucks away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.08 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cincinnati Dutch Lions attack 2.67 + Flint City Bucks defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Flint City Bucks attack 2.10 + Cincinnati Dutch Lions defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cincinnati Dutch Lions scores more

42%

level

22%

Flint City Bucks scores more

36%

Cincinnati Dutch Lions at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Cincinnati Dutch Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff