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Flint City Bucks vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Flint City Bucks
Flint City Bucks
FT
2 – 1
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
6/27/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 3Atwood Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Flint City Bucks43%
×Draw21%
Chicago Fire II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flint City Bucks
2.02
Chicago Fire II
1.81

Flint City Bucks creates 12% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 21 away

creates per match

Flint City Bucks
2.80
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Flint City Bucks
0.86
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Flint City Bucks+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flint City Bucks ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Flint City Bucks or draw
65%
Flint City Bucks or Chicago Fire II
79%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
57%

Winning margin

Flint City Bucks wins by 2+
24%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Flint City Bucks 1+ goals
87%
Flint City Bucks 2+ goals
60%
Flint City Bucks 3+ goals
33%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
84%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
54%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Flint City Bucks (draw refunded)
55%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flint City Bucks at home — creates 2.80, concedes 0.86 · 49 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flint City Bucks attack 2.80 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 2.02

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Flint City Bucks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flint City Bucks scores more
43%
level
21%
Chicago Fire II scores more
35%

Flint City Bucks at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flint City Bucks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Flint City Bucks 2–1 Chicago Fire II

Flint City Bucks beat Chicago Fire II 2-1 in USL League Two on June 27, 2019.

The match was played at Atwood Stadium.