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Fleury 91 vs UNFP — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fleury 91
Fleury 91
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
UNFP
UNFP
7/23/2025Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fleury 9126%
×Draw21%
UNFP53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleury 91
1.42
UNFP
2.08

UNFP creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fleury 91
0.67
UNFP
1.17

allows per match

Fleury 91
3.00
UNFP
2.17

finishing

Fleury 91+0.00on par
UNFP+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleury 91 ↓

UNFP →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Fleury 91 or draw
47%
Fleury 91 or UNFP
79%
Draw or UNFP
74%

Winning margin

Fleury 91 wins by 2+
11%
UNFP wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Fleury 91 1+ goals
76%
Fleury 91 2+ goals
41%
Fleury 91 3+ goals
17%
UNFP 1+ goals
87%
UNFP 2+ goals
61%
UNFP 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Fleury 91 (draw refunded)
33%
UNFP (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleury 91 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

UNFP away — creates 1.17, concedes 2.17 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleury 91 attack 0.67 + UNFP defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

UNFP attack 1.17 + Fleury 91 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fleury 91 scores more
26%
level
21%
UNFP scores more
53%

UNFP at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "UNFP will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleury 91 2 – 2 UNFP

Fleury 91 and UNFP drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 23, 2025.