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Fleury 91 vs Boulogne — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Fleury 91
Fleury 91
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Boulogne
Boulogne
N. Fatar 90+1'
J. Bultel 70'
7/15/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fleury 9115%
×Draw20%
Boulogne66%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleury 91
0.91
Boulogne
2.15

Boulogne creates 136% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

creates per match

Fleury 91
0.67
Boulogne
1.29

allows per match

Fleury 91
3.00
Boulogne
1.14

finishing

Fleury 91+0.00on par
Boulogne+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleury 91 ↓

Boulogne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–211%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Fleury 91 or draw
34%
Fleury 91 or Boulogne
80%
Draw or Boulogne
85%

Winning margin

Fleury 91 wins by 2+
5%
Boulogne wins by 2+
42%

Team goals

Fleury 91 1+ goals
60%
Fleury 91 2+ goals
23%
Fleury 91 3+ goals
6%
Boulogne 1+ goals
88%
Boulogne 2+ goals
63%
Boulogne 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Fleury 91 (draw refunded)
19%
Boulogne (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleury 91 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 3.00 · 3 matches

Boulogne away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleury 91 attack 0.67 + Boulogne defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Boulogne attack 1.29 + Fleury 91 defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Fleury 91 scores more
15%
level
20%
Boulogne scores more
66%

Boulogne at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Boulogne will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

70'
J. Bultel
90+1'
N. Fatar

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Fleury 91 0–2 Boulogne

Boulogne beat Fleury 91 2-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 15, 2026.

Goals: J. Bultel (70'), N. Fatar (90+1').