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Fleury 91 vs Amiens — Coupe de France 2018

Fleury 91
Fleury 91
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Amiens
Amiens
11/16/2024Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 7th RoundTerrain Walter Felder

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fleury 9121%
×Draw26%
Amiens54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleury 91
0.86
Amiens
1.55

Amiens creates 80% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 18 away

creates per match

Fleury 91
1.00
Amiens
2.11

allows per match

Fleury 91
1.00
Amiens
0.72

finishing

Fleury 91+0.00on par
Amiens+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleury 91 ↓

Amiens →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–114%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fleury 91 or draw
46%
Fleury 91 or Amiens
74%
Draw or Amiens
79%

Winning margin

Fleury 91 wins by 2+
7%
Amiens wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Fleury 91 1+ goals
58%
Fleury 91 2+ goals
21%
Fleury 91 3+ goals
6%
Amiens 1+ goals
79%
Amiens 2+ goals
46%
Amiens 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fleury 91 (draw refunded)
28%
Amiens (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleury 91 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Amiens away — creates 2.11, concedes 0.72 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleury 91 attack 1.00 + Amiens defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 0.86

Amiens attack 2.11 + Fleury 91 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Fleury 91 scores more
21%
level
26%
Amiens scores more
54%

Amiens at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Amiens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Coupe de France: Fleury 91 1–1 Amiens

Fleury 91 and Amiens drew 1-1 in Coupe de France on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Terrain Walter Felder in Fleury Merogis.