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Flekkerøy vs Vard — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Vard
Vard
8/10/20242. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Cemo Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Flekkerøy50%
×Draw23%
Vard27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flekkerøy
1.79
Vard
1.25

Flekkerøy creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Flekkerøy
1.57
Vard
1.10

allows per match

Flekkerøy
1.41
Vard
2.02

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par
Vard+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Vard →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw
73%
Flekkerøy or Vard
77%
Draw or Vard
50%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+
27%
Vard wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals
83%
Flekkerøy 2+ goals
53%
Flekkerøy 3+ goals
26%
Vard 1+ goals
71%
Vard 2+ goals
36%
Vard 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)
65%
Vard (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Vard away — creates 1.10, concedes 2.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Vard defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.79

Vard attack 1.10 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Flekkerøy scores more
50%
level
23%
Vard scores more
27%

Flekkerøy at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Division - Group 1: Flekkerøy 2–3 Vard

Vard beat Flekkerøy 3-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Cemo Arena Flekkerøy in Kristiansand.