Flekkerøy 5–2 Fram: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

5 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Fram

J. Furaha 88'

P. Dovland 77' (pen), 57'

K. Eriksen 38'

A. Ujkani 33'

I. Nilsen 81'

P. Einarson 32'

10/29/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 24Cemo Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flekkerøy56%

×Draw20%

Fram24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchFram

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

1.44

Flekkerøy

2.25

Fram

1.44

Flekkerøy creates 56% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

1.57

creates per match

1.46

1.41

allows per match

2.92

creates per match

Flekkerøy

1.57

Fram

1.46

allows per match

Flekkerøy

1.41

Fram

2.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Fram+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Fram →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

76%

Flekkerøy or Fram

80%

Draw or Fram

44%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

34%

Fram wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

89%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

65%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

39%

Fram 1+ goals

76%

Fram 2+ goals

42%

Fram 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

70%

Fram (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Fram away — creates 1.46, concedes 2.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Fram defence 2.92 → ÷2 → 2.25

Fram attack 1.46 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

56%

level

20%

Fram scores more

24%

Flekkerøy at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

2'

F. Lien

14'

M. Fahlgren-Hallstrom

32'

33'

38'

55'

57'

58'

70'

O. Helgeland← J. Bruusgaard

70'

I. Nilsen← P. Einarson

71'

M. Fahlgren-Hallstrom

71'

M. Fahlgren-Hallstrom

73'

J. Furaha← K. Eriksen

73'

P. Hille← W. Johnsen

75'

X. You← T. Kongerud

77'

P. DovlandPenalty

78'

M. Rekdal← M. Anthonsen Wurschmidt

78'

M. Jacobsen← R. Nguen

81'

I. Nilsen

85'

J. Årikstad← B. Sundo

85'

U. Pedersen← E. Nordengen

88'

J. Furaha

Flekkerøy

Fram

1

Vieira

5

Ahmed

16

Fjeldskår

24

▼

Nguen

30

▼

Wurschmid

17

▼

Bruusgaar

7

⚽

▼

Einarson

23

▼

9

8

25

1

31

⚽

Ujkani

30

Eftevaag

5

▼

Sundo

18

Hauge

15

Ystanes

4

▼

Kongerud

3

Lien

6

▼

Johnsen

9

⚽

▼

Eriksen

10

⚽2

Dovland

Manager: M. Johansen

73'▲J. Furaha←▼K. Eriksen

73'▲P. Hille←▼W. Johnsen

75'▲X. You←▼T. Kongerud

85'▲J. Årikstad←▼B. Sundo

Flekkerøy substitutes

11Furaha20Hille14You23Årikstad8Gamachis13Kristiansen16Sigurdsen17Ibishi22Eftevaag

Manager: H. Lunov

70'▲O. Helgeland←▼J. Bruusgaard

70'▲I. Nilsen←▼P. Einarson

78'▲M. Rekdal←▼M. Anthonsen Wurschmidt

78'▲M. Jacobsen←▼R. Nguen

85'▲U. Pedersen←▼E. Nordengen

Fram substitutes

13Helgeland19Nilsen3Rekdal15Jacobsen22Pedersen4Rydjord27Mosquera12Kamecki

2. Division - Group 1: Flekkerøy 5–2 Fram

Flekkerøy beat Fram 5-2 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 29, 2023.

Goals: P. Einarson (32'), A. Ujkani (33'), K. Eriksen (38'), P. Dovland (57', 77' pen), I. Nilsen (81'), J. Furaha (88').

The match was played at Cemo Arena Flekkerøy in Kristiansand.

Flekkerøy vs Fram — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Flekkerøy 5–2 Fram