Flekkerøy 1–1 Brattvåg: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Brattvåg

K. Eriksen 78' (pen)

S. Beite 12'

10/1/2023

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 21Cemo Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Flekkerøy43%

×Draw23%

Brattvåg34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchBrattvåg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.55

Flekkerøy

1.75

Brattvåg

1.55

Flekkerøy creates 13% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 76 away

1.57

creates per match

1.70

1.41

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Flekkerøy

1.57

Brattvåg

1.70

allows per match

Flekkerøy

1.41

Brattvåg

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Brattvåg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Brattvåg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

66%

Flekkerøy or Brattvåg

77%

Draw or Brattvåg

57%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

22%

Brattvåg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

83%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

52%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

25%

Brattvåg 1+ goals

79%

Brattvåg 2+ goals

46%

Brattvåg 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

55%

Brattvåg (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Brattvåg away — creates 1.70, concedes 1.92 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Brattvåg defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Brattvåg attack 1.70 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

43%

level

23%

Brattvåg scores more

34%

Flekkerøy at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

S. Beite

30'

B. Leeflang← U. Syversen

58'

P. Dovland← J. Furaha

58'

W. Johnsen← D. Gamachis

72'

D. Ibishi← F. Lien

76'

E. Dahle

78'

K. EriksenPenalty

85'

D. Sissoko← A. Obiech

85'

J. Fylling← S. Beite

86'

K. Halvorsen

87'

H. Breivik← S. Tattum

90'

H. Breivik

Flekkerøy

Brattvåg

1

Jørgensen

19

▼

Tattum

6

Fosu-Mens

22

Refsnes

4

▼

10

21

14

7

16

▼

Obiech

27

⚽

▼

1

31

30

5

18

15

4

8

▼

Gamachis

3

▼

Lien

9

⚽

Eriksen

11

▼

Furaha

Manager: M. Johansen

58'▲P. Dovland←▼J. Furaha

58'▲W. Johnsen←▼D. Gamachis

72'▲D. Ibishi←▼F. Lien

Flekkerøy substitutes

10Dovland6Johnsen17Ibishi13Kristiansen14You16Sigurdsen29Kloster

Manager: R. Skovdahl

30'▲B. Leeflang←▼U. Syversen

85'▲D. Sissoko←▼A. Obiech

85'▲J. Fylling←▼S. Beite

87'▲H. Breivik←▼S. Tattum

Brattvåg substitutes

5Leeflang13Sissoko18Fylling2Breivik23Bubahe12Løseth

2. Division - Group 1: Flekkerøy 1–1 Brattvåg

Flekkerøy and Brattvåg drew 1-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on October 1, 2023.

Goals: S. Beite (12'), K. Eriksen (78' pen).

The match was played at Cemo Arena Flekkerøy in Kristiansand.

Flekkerøy vs Brattvåg — 2. Division - Group 1 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

2. Division - Group 1: Flekkerøy 1–1 Brattvåg