Flekkerøy 1–1 Brann II: Result & Stats

Flekkerøy

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Brann II

H. Byklum 41'

J. Gravdahl 62' (OG)

10/19/2025

2. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 25Cemo Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Flekkerøy49%

×Draw22%

Brann II29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlekkerøyExpected goals in this matchBrann II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.48

Flekkerøy

1.96

Brann II

1.48

Flekkerøy creates 32% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 26 away

1.57

creates per match

1.54

1.41

allows per match

2.35

creates per match

Flekkerøy

1.57

Brann II

1.54

allows per match

Flekkerøy

1.41

Brann II

2.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par

Brann II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Brann II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw

71%

Flekkerøy or Brann II

78%

Draw or Brann II

51%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+

28%

Brann II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals

86%

Flekkerøy 2+ goals

58%

Flekkerøy 3+ goals

31%

Brann II 1+ goals

77%

Brann II 2+ goals

43%

Brann II 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)

62%

Brann II (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Brann II away — creates 1.54, concedes 2.35 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Brann II defence 2.35 → ÷2 → 1.96

Brann II attack 1.54 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Flekkerøy scores more

49%

level

22%

Brann II scores more

29%

Flekkerøy at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

H. Byklum

46'

J. Seim← J. Levinsen Arild

60'

H. Byklum

62'

J. GravdahlOwn goal

74'

S. Platzer← S. Vindenes

78'

S. Richardsen← M. Tjoland

78'

N. Brandal← A. Barosen

82'

H. Andersen

82'

S. Ringsbu

88'

D. Riihilahti← J. Eikrem

90'

E. Johnsen← D. W. Johnsen

Flekkerøy

Brann

12

2

3

4

5

8

10

▼

Eikrem

14

▼

9

11

21

1

4

🥅

Gravdahl

8

Gamachis

19

Kvalsvik

24

▼

Barosen

6

▼

Johnsen

10

Andersen

21

▼

Arild

3

⚽

Byklum

14

▼

Tjoland

22

Ringsbu

Manager: S. Skeie

46'▲J. Seim←▼J. Levinsen Arild

78'▲S. Richardsen←▼M. Tjoland

78'▲N. Brandal←▼A. Barosen

90'▲E. Johnsen←▼D. W. Johnsen

Flekkerøy substitutes

7Richardsen9Frostad11Nahiry16Kristensen17Johnsen23Seim30Brandal12Vang

74'▲S. Platzer←▼S. Vindenes

88'▲D. Riihilahti←▼J. Eikrem

Brann II substitutes

1Hellesoy15Grimeland18Riihilahti19Steinegger23Platzer