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Flekkerøy vs Aalesund II — 2. Division - Group 1 2019

Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Aalesund II
Aalesund II
7/3/20232. Division - Group 12. Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 12Cemo Arena Flekkerøy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Flekkerøy52%
×Draw24%
Aalesund II25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flekkerøy
1.75
Aalesund II
1.13

Flekkerøy creates 55% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 13 away

creates per match

Flekkerøy
1.57
Aalesund II
0.85

allows per match

Flekkerøy
1.41
Aalesund II
1.92

finishing

Flekkerøy+0.00on par
Aalesund II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flekkerøy ↓

Aalesund II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Flekkerøy or draw
75%
Flekkerøy or Aalesund II
76%
Draw or Aalesund II
48%

Winning margin

Flekkerøy wins by 2+
28%
Aalesund II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flekkerøy 1+ goals
83%
Flekkerøy 2+ goals
52%
Flekkerøy 3+ goals
25%
Aalesund II 1+ goals
68%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
31%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Flekkerøy (draw refunded)
68%
Aalesund II (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flekkerøy at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.41 · 51 matches

Aalesund II away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flekkerøy attack 1.57 + Aalesund II defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Aalesund II attack 0.85 + Flekkerøy defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Flekkerøy scores more
52%
level
24%
Aalesund II scores more
25%

Flekkerøy at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Flekkerøy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flekkerøy vs Aalesund II

Flekkerøy beat Aalesund II 2-1 in 2. Division - Group 1 on July 3, 2023.

The match was played at Cemo Arena Flekkerøy in Kristiansand.