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Fleetwood Town vs Wigan — League One 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Wigan
Wigan
3/2/2024League OneLeague One · Round 36Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 116+ matches

Fleetwood Town38%
×Draw27%
Wigan35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Wigan
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 135 home / 116 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.27
Wigan
1.32

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.17
Wigan
1.34

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Wigan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
65%
Fleetwood Town or Wigan
73%
Draw or Wigan
62%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
17%
Wigan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
73%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
38%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%
Wigan 1+ goals
71%
Wigan 2+ goals
36%
Wigan 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
52%
Wigan (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.34 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Wigan defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wigan attack 1.32 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
38%
level
27%
Wigan scores more
35%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Wigan

Fleetwood Town beat Wigan 4-2 in League One on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.