Fleetwood Town 1–1 Wigan: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Wigan

D. Andrew 28'

O. Crankshaw 90+1'

12/19/2020

League One · Round 19Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%

×Draw27%

Wigan35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchWigan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.23

Fleetwood Town

1.31

Wigan

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 117 away

1.30

creates per match

1.32

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Wigan

1.32

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Wigan

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Wigan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Wigan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

65%

Fleetwood Town or Wigan

73%

Draw or Wigan

61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Wigan wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

73%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

38%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

14%

Wigan 1+ goals

71%

Wigan 2+ goals

35%

Wigan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

53%

Wigan (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Wigan away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Wigan defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Wigan attack 1.32 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

39%

level

27%

Wigan scores more

35%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

D. Andrew

Fleetwood Town · D

7.7

Match Events

28'

37'

62'

63'

73'

77'

86'

O. Crankshaw← K. Joseph

87'

Jordan Rossiter

90'

Paddy Madden

90+5'

L. Robinson← D. Gardner

90+1'

O. Crankshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodWigan

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots10

7Corners7

18Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots10

3On Target2

3Off Target2

3Blocked6

4Inside Box7

5Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

342Total Passes323

221Accurate Passes203

65%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

18Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

5Offsides2