Fleetwood Town 2–2 Sunderland: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Sunderland

G. Garner 90+7' (pen)

C. Morton 81'

A. McGeady 76' (pen)

R. Stewart 19'

9/18/2021

League One · Round 8Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Fleetwood Town36%

×Draw28%

Sunderland37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.22

Fleetwood Town

1.20

Sunderland

1.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 86 away

1.30

creates per match

1.30

1.14

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Sunderland

1.30

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Sunderland

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Sunderland+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

63%

Fleetwood Town or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

64%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

15%

Sunderland wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

70%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

34%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

12%

Sunderland 1+ goals

70%

Sunderland 2+ goals

34%

Sunderland 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

49%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Sunderland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.09 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Sunderland defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sunderland attack 1.30 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

36%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

37%

Sunderland at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sunderland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

A. McGeady

Sunderland · M

7.7

Match Events

19'

R. Stewart↳ E. Embleton

46'

J. Garner← M. Clark

53'

Luke O'Nien

67'

C. Evans← D. Neil

72'

N. Broadhead← E. Embleton

76'

A. McGeadyPenalty

77'

81'

85'

90+4'

90'

90+7'

G. GarnerPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodSunderland

Overview

44%Possession56%

12Total Shots14

7Corners4

8Fouls12

Shots

12Total Shots14

4On Target5

7Off Target6

1Blocked3

9Inside Box10

3Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

340Total Passes457

254Accurate Passes360

75%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls12

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides5