Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth — League One 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 135+ matches
Fleetwood Town35%
Portsmouth38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 135 home / 135 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under56
- Over44
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Fleetwood Town ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches
Portsmouth away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.09 · 135 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Portsmouth defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.18
Portsmouth attack 1.33 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Portsmouth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Luton
Barnsley
CharltonPortsmouth
Sunderland
Doncaster
Peterborough
Coventry
Burton Albion
BlackpoolFleetwood Town
Oxford United
Gillingham
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
Rochdale
Wycombe
Shrewsbury
Southend
AFC Wimbledon
Plymouth
Walsall
Scunthorpe
BradfordIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Fleetwood Town host Portsmouth on Saturday, 29 December 2018 at 15:00. The match is part of the League One 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Portsmouth
Portsmouth beat Fleetwood Town 5-2 in League One on December 29, 2018.
Goals: B. Thompson (26'), P. Madden (39'), C. Evans (43' pen), B. Pitman (57' pen), A. Walkes (58'), J. Lowe (81', 84').
The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood.