Fleetwood Town 2–1 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Peterborough

W. Burns 76'

C. Connolly 15'

D. Butler 54'

2/15/2020

League One · Round 34Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%

×Draw26%

Peterborough35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.30

Fleetwood Town

1.38

Peterborough

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 138 home / 157 away

1.30

creates per match

1.46

1.14

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Peterborough

1.46

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Peterborough

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

65%

Fleetwood Town or Peterborough

74%

Draw or Peterborough

61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Peterborough wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

75%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

40%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

16%

Peterborough 1+ goals

73%

Peterborough 2+ goals

37%

Peterborough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 157 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Peterborough defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.38

Peterborough attack 1.46 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

39%

level

26%

Peterborough scores more

35%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

W. Burns

Fleetwood Town · F

7.6

Match Events

2'

Barrie McKay

7'

Alex Cairns

15'

C. Connolly↳ D. Andrew

54'

D. Butler↳ J. Taylor

64'

J. Sowerby← C. Connolly

64'

I. Kanu← M. Eisa

72'

J. Morris← B. McKay

73'

Nathan Thompson

76'

W. Burns↳ J. Morris

83'

R. Jade-Jones← N. Mason

84'

I. Thorvaldsson← L. Coyle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodPeterborough

Overview

39%Possession61%

10Total Shots6

3Corners3

11Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots6

3On Target3

4Off Target1

3Blocked2

6Inside Box2

4Outside Box4

Passing

39%Possession61%

324Total Passes497

186Accurate Passes368

57%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0