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Fleetwood Town vs Northampton — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Northampton
Northampton
2/15/2014League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Fleetwood Town39%
×Draw27%
Northampton34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.27
Northampton
1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 88 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.31
Northampton
1.24

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.11
Northampton
1.24

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Northampton+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Northampton →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
66%
Fleetwood Town or Northampton
73%
Draw or Northampton
61%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
17%
Northampton wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
72%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
36%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
14%
Northampton 1+ goals
69%
Northampton 2+ goals
33%
Northampton 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
53%
Northampton (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.11 · 54 matches

Northampton away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.24 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.31 + Northampton defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Northampton attack 1.24 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
39%
level
27%
Northampton scores more
34%

Fleetwood Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Fleetwood Town 2–0 Northampton

Fleetwood Town beat Northampton 2-0 in League Two on February 15, 2014.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.