Fleetwood Town 1–0 Leyton Orient: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Leyton Orient

J. Marriott 56'

9/30/2023

League One · Round 10Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Fleetwood Town40%

×Draw27%

Leyton Orient33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchLeyton Orient

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.21

Fleetwood Town

1.35

Leyton Orient

1.21

Fleetwood Town creates 12% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 78 away

1.30

creates per match

1.29

1.14

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

Leyton Orient

1.29

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

Leyton Orient

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Leyton Orient+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Leyton Orient →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

67%

Fleetwood Town or Leyton Orient

73%

Draw or Leyton Orient

60%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

18%

Leyton Orient wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

74%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

39%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Leyton Orient 1+ goals

70%

Leyton Orient 2+ goals

34%

Leyton Orient 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

54%

Leyton Orient (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Leyton Orient away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.41 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Leyton Orient defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.35

Leyton Orient attack 1.29 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

40%

level

27%

Leyton Orient scores more

33%

Fleetwood Town at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

J. Lynch

Fleetwood Town · G

7.6

Match Events

50'

Aristote Nsiala

52'

Omar Beckles

53'

J. Brown← D. Pratley

53'

E. Galbraith← G. Moncur

53'

A. Drinan← J. Pigott

56'

J. Marriott↳ Junior Quitirna

60'

D. Happe← O. Beckles

63'

S. Forde← I. El Mizouni

77'

Carl Johnston

84'

R. Graydon← P. Omochere

87'

K. Tshimanga← J. Marriott

89'

90+9'

90+9'

90+9'

90+4'

90+4'

90+9'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodLeyton

Overview

47%Possession53%

14Total Shots15

6Corners6

10Fouls10

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target5

5Off Target7

6Blocked3

6Inside Box10

8Outside Box5

Passing

47%Possession53%

403Total Passes459

300Accurate Passes374

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls10

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Leyton Orient

Fleetwood Town beat Leyton Orient 1-0 in League One on September 30, 2023.

Goals: J. Marriott (56').

Leyton Orient controlled possession (53%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.

Fleetwood Town vs Leyton Orient — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Leyton Orient