Fleetwood Town 2–4 Doncaster: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 3

Doncaster

R. Graydon 42'

M. Helm 34'

J. Bolton 68' (OG)

B. Sharp 45+3'

O. Bailey 39'

K. Hurst 13'

12/4/2024

League Two · Round 18Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fleetwood Town38%

×Draw26%

Doncaster36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchDoncaster

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.29

Fleetwood Town

1.34

Doncaster

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 73 away

1.26

creates per match

1.38

1.20

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.26

Doncaster

1.38

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.20

Doncaster

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Doncaster+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Doncaster →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

64%

Fleetwood Town or Doncaster

74%

Draw or Doncaster

62%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

17%

Doncaster wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

74%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

39%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

15%

Doncaster 1+ goals

72%

Doncaster 2+ goals

37%

Doncaster 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

52%

Doncaster (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.20 · 46 matches

Doncaster away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.42 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.26 + Doncaster defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.34

Doncaster attack 1.38 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

38%

level

26%

Doncaster scores more

36%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

R. Graydon

Fleetwood Town · F

7.7

Match Events

9'

Tom Anderson

13'

K. Hurst↳ J. Ironside

19'

James Bolton

34'

M. Helm

39'

O. Bailey↳ J. McGrath

40'

R. Broom← C. Johnston

42'

R. Graydon↳ R. Coughlan

45+3'

B. Sharp↳ J. Olowu

54'

Jamie Sterry

68'

J. BoltonOwn goal

69'

Mackenzie Hunt← P. Patterson

69'

D. Mayor← F. Potter

69'

K. Harratt← R. Coughlan

69'

L. Molyneux← K. Hurst

70'

J. Senior← J. Maxwell

76'

H. Clifton← B. Sharp

83'

O. Devonport← R. Graydon

90+3'

Teddy Sharman-Lowe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodDoncaster

Overview

63%Possession37%

11Total Shots10

5Corners6

7Fouls12

Shots

11Total Shots10

2On Target6

3Off Target1

6Blocked3

8Inside Box6

3Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

404Total Passes240

285Accurate Passes141

71%Pass Accuracy59%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

7Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

2Offsides3