Fleetwood Town 1–3 Derby: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Derby

1/6/2024

League One · Round 27Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Fleetwood Town33%

×Draw28%

Derby40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchDerby

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.28

Fleetwood Town

1.13

Derby

1.28

Derby creates 13% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 46 away

1.27

creates per match

1.39

1.17

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.27

Derby

1.39

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Derby

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Derby+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Derby →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

60%

Fleetwood Town or Derby

72%

Draw or Derby

67%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

13%

Derby wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

68%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

31%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Derby 1+ goals

72%

Derby 2+ goals

37%

Derby 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

45%

Derby (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.17 · 135 matches

Derby away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.98 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.27 + Derby defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.13

Derby attack 1.39 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

33%

level

28%

Derby scores more

40%

Derby at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Derby will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff