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Fleetwood Town vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
Preview
15:00
Colchester
Colchester
1/9/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 24Highbury Stadium
53%
Fleetwood Town
model favours
53%24%24%

Fleetwood Town win just 19% against the top half (vs 48% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
52%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Fleetwood Town53%
×Draw24%
Colchester24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.71
Colchester
1.06

Fleetwood Town creates 61% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.61
Colchester
1.21

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
0.91
Colchester
1.81

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.43scores less
Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
76%
Fleetwood Town or Colchester
76%
Draw or Colchester
47%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
29%
Colchester wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
82%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
51%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
24%
Colchester 1+ goals
65%
Colchester 2+ goals
29%
Colchester 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
69%
Colchester (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.61 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.71

Colchester attack 1.21 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
53%
level
24%
Colchester scores more
24%

Fleetwood Town at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Fleetwood Town
Defensively solid
Colchester
Balanced
49%Possession51%
68%Pass accuracy71%
12.2ShotsBiggest gap11.4
1.42xG1.33
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Fleetwood TownColchester

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

1
Fleetwood Town
1
Draws
2
Colchester
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 50%
1–24–20–30–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Town
WWWWD
Colchester
LWWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fleetwood Town face Colchester (League Two)

League Two returns with Fleetwood Town hosting Colchester. Match starts January 9, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Fleetwood Town host Colchester at Highbury Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.