Fleetwood Town 4–2 Colchester: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Colchester

M. Helm 90'

J. Davies 87', 55'

E. Ennis 30'

J. Payne 39' (pen)

K. Lisbie 3'

9/27/2025

League Two · Round 10Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Fleetwood Town51%

×Draw24%

Colchester25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchColchester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.08

Fleetwood Town

1.67

Colchester

1.08

Fleetwood Town creates 55% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.52

creates per match

1.21

0.96

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.52

Colchester

1.21

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

0.96

Colchester

1.81

-0.35scores less than expected

finishing

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

Fleetwood Town-0.35scores less

Colchester+0.15scores more

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Colchester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

75%

Fleetwood Town or Colchester

76%

Draw or Colchester

49%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

27%

Colchester wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

81%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

50%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

23%

Colchester 1+ goals

66%

Colchester 2+ goals

29%

Colchester 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

67%

Colchester (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.52, concedes 0.96 · 12 matches

Colchester away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.81 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.52 + Colchester defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.67

Colchester attack 1.21 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

51%

level

24%

Colchester scores more

25%

Fleetwood Town at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

J. Davies

Fleetwood Town · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

K. Lisbie↳ J. Payne

30'

E. Ennis↳ F. Potter

39'

J. PaynePenalty

40'

H. Holgate← J. Bolton

55'

J. Davies↳ R. Graydon

64'

76'

76'

79'

87'

89'

J. Williams← H. Anderson

90+1'

H. Neal← J. Davies

90'

M. Helm

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodColchester

Overview

50%Possession50%

18Total Shots12

4Corners1

14Fouls13

Shots

18Total Shots12

7On Target4

9Off Target3

2Blocked5

14Inside Box6

4Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

394Total Passes407

299Accurate Passes308

76%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls13

0Offsides2