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Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion — League One 2018

Fleetwood Town
Fleetwood Town
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Burton Albion
Burton Albion
P. Omochere 90+4'
J. Stockley 58'
C. Kirk 90+6'
T. Hamer 80'
A. Oshilaja 60'
2/4/2023League OneLeague One · Round 30Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 138+ matches

Fleetwood Town45%
×Draw26%
Burton Albion29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fleetwood Town
1.45
Burton Albion
1.10

Fleetwood Town creates 32% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 176 away

creates per match

Fleetwood Town
1.30
Burton Albion
1.06

allows per match

Fleetwood Town
1.14
Burton Albion
1.59

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par
Burton Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

Burton Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw
71%
Fleetwood Town or Burton Albion
74%
Draw or Burton Albion
55%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+
22%
Burton Albion wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals
77%
Fleetwood Town 2+ goals
42%
Fleetwood Town 3+ goals
18%
Burton Albion 1+ goals
67%
Burton Albion 2+ goals
30%
Burton Albion 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)
61%
Burton Albion (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

Burton Albion away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.59 · 176 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + Burton Albion defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.45

Burton Albion attack 1.06 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more
45%
level
26%
Burton Albion scores more
29%

Fleetwood Town at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
A. OshilajaBurton AlbionBurton Albion · M
7.7

Match Events

14'
C. McCann← T. Taylor
58'
J. Stockley↳ J. Marriott
60'
A. Oshilaja↳ S. Hughes
69'
Carlos Gomes← S. Robertson
77'
C. Dolan← J. Marriott
77'
P. Omochere← H. Macadam
80'
T. Hamer↳ J. Walker
82'
C. Kirk← J. Walker
86'
Josh Vela
90+3'
Zachary Ashworth
90+3'
C. Hayes← C. Johnston
90+4'
P. Omochere↳ C. Dolan
90+6'
C. Kirk

Possession

62%Fleetwood

Shots

16Fleetwood

Pass accuracy

57%Fleetwood

Statistics

FleetwoodBurton
Overview
62%Possession38%
16Total Shots16
5Corners3
9Fouls8
Shots
16Total Shots16
3On Target6
6Off Target8
7Blocked2
10Inside Box10
6Outside Box6
Passing
62%Possession38%
403Total Passes252
242Accurate Passes116
60%Pass Accuracy46%
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls8
0Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Fleetwood Town vs Burton Albion

Burton Albion beat Fleetwood Town 3-2 in League One on February 4, 2023.

Goals: J. Stockley (58'), A. Oshilaja (60'), T. Hamer (80'), P. Omochere (90+4'), C. Kirk (90+6').

Fleetwood Town controlled possession (62%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Highbury Stadium in Fleetwood, Lancashire.