Fleetwood Town 2–1 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Fleetwood Town

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

J. Morris 65'

P. Madden 56'

K. Appiah 26'

8/10/2019

League One · Round 2Highbury Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 109+ matches

Fleetwood Town46%

×Draw26%

AFC Wimbledon28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Fleetwood TownExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.05

Fleetwood Town

1.44

AFC Wimbledon

1.05

Fleetwood Town creates 37% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 109 away

1.30

creates per match

0.96

1.14

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Fleetwood Town

1.30

AFC Wimbledon

0.96

allows per match

Fleetwood Town

1.14

AFC Wimbledon

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fleetwood Town ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Fleetwood Town or draw

72%

Fleetwood Town or AFC Wimbledon

74%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

54%

Winning margin

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

22%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

76%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

42%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

18%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

65%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

28%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

63%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fleetwood Town at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.14 · 138 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.58 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fleetwood Town attack 1.30 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.44

AFC Wimbledon attack 0.96 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fleetwood Town scores more

46%

level

26%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

28%

Fleetwood Town at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

J. Morris

Fleetwood Town · F

7.8

Match Events

19'

Kwesi Appiah

26'

K. Appiah↳ L. O'Neill

39'

Jordan Rossiter

39'

Mitchell Pinnock

46'

P. Madden← H. Biggins

56'

P. Madden↳ W. Burns

62'

Terell Thomas

65'

J. Morris

70'

S. McLoughlin← A. Hartigan

77'

D. Connolly← R. McDonald

78'

A. Hunter← J. Morris

85'

M. Folivi← M. Pinnock

87'

J. Sowerby← C. McAleny

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FleetwoodAFC

Overview

67%Possession33%

15Total Shots7

6Corners4

9Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots7

4On Target3

8Off Target2

3Blocked2

11Inside Box6

4Outside Box1

Passing

67%Possession33%

498Total Passes245

398Accurate Passes122

80%Pass Accuracy50%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls12

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides4