AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Fleetwood Town: Result & Stats

AFC Wimbledon

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Fleetwood Town

J. Neufville 28'

8/31/2024

League Two · Round 4The Cherry Red Records Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

AFC Wimbledon45%

×Draw26%

Fleetwood Town29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AFC WimbledonExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.09

AFC Wimbledon

1.44

Fleetwood Town

1.09

AFC Wimbledon creates 32% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 54 away

1.47

creates per match

1.19

1.00

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.47

Fleetwood Town

1.19

allows per match

AFC Wimbledon

1.00

Fleetwood Town

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AFC Wimbledon+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AFC Wimbledon ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AFC Wimbledon or draw

71%

AFC Wimbledon or Fleetwood Town

74%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

55%

Winning margin

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

22%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

76%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

42%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

18%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

66%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

30%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

61%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AFC Wimbledon at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.00 · 74 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.47 + Fleetwood Town defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fleetwood Town attack 1.19 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AFC Wimbledon scores more

45%

level

26%

Fleetwood Town scores more

29%

AFC Wimbledon at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AFC Wimbledon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

31

J. Lewis

AFC Wimbledon · D

7.9

Match Events

18'

I. Ogundere← R. Johnson

28'

J. Neufville

46'

K. Harratt← M. Virtue-Thick

47'

Riley Harbottle

48'

Joe Lewis

64'

R. Broom← M. Helm

64'

M. Odubeko← R. Coughlan

70'

Ryan Broom

71'

M. Stevens← J. Pigott

73'

Mackenzie Hunt

75'

R. Bennett← K. Hughes

75'

P. Patterson← Mackenzie Hunt

88'

C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte

90+1'

Omar Bugiel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AFCFleetwood

Overview

41%Possession59%

20Total Shots9

9Corners6

15Fouls10

Shots

20Total Shots9

5On Target1

6Off Target4

9Blocked4

15Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

41%Possession59%

283Total Passes418

200Accurate Passes321

71%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls10

3Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0