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Flatirons Rush vs Park City Red Wolves — USL League Two 2018

Flatirons Rush
Flatirons Rush
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Park City Red Wolves
Park City Red Wolves
6/11/2022USL League TwoUSL League Two · Round 30North Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Flatirons Rush33%
×Draw23%
Park City Red Wolves44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flatirons Rush
1.54
Park City Red Wolves
1.79

Park City Red Wolves creates 16% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 22 away

creates per match

Flatirons Rush
1.48
Park City Red Wolves
1.86

allows per match

Flatirons Rush
1.72
Park City Red Wolves
1.59

finishing

Flatirons Rush+0.00on par
Park City Red Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flatirons Rush ↓

Park City Red Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
65%35%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Flatirons Rush or draw
56%
Flatirons Rush or Park City Red Wolves
77%
Draw or Park City Red Wolves
67%

Winning margin

Flatirons Rush wins by 2+
16%
Park City Red Wolves wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Flatirons Rush 1+ goals
79%
Flatirons Rush 2+ goals
45%
Flatirons Rush 3+ goals
20%
Park City Red Wolves 1+ goals
83%
Park City Red Wolves 2+ goals
53%
Park City Red Wolves 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Flatirons Rush (draw refunded)
43%
Park City Red Wolves (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flatirons Rush at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.72 · 29 matches

Park City Red Wolves away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.59 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flatirons Rush attack 1.48 + Park City Red Wolves defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.54

Park City Red Wolves attack 1.86 + Flatirons Rush defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Flatirons Rush scores more
33%
level
23%
Park City Red Wolves scores more
44%

Park City Red Wolves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Park City Red Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Flatirons Rush 0–3 Park City Red Wolves

Park City Red Wolves beat Flatirons Rush 3-0 in USL League Two on June 11, 2022.

The match was played at North Stadium in Westminster, Colorado.