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Flat Earth vs Villanueva Pardillo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Villanueva Pardillo
Villanueva Pardillo
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 1Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth42%
×Draw30%
Villanueva Pardillo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.18
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

Flat Earth creates 31% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 50 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
Villanueva Pardillo
0.90

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
Villanueva Pardillo
1.10

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
Villanueva Pardillo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Villanueva Pardillo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
72%
Flat Earth or Villanueva Pardillo
70%
Draw or Villanueva Pardillo
58%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
18%
Villanueva Pardillo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
69%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
33%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
12%
Villanueva Pardillo 1+ goals
59%
Villanueva Pardillo 2+ goals
23%
Villanueva Pardillo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
60%
Villanueva Pardillo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Villanueva Pardillo away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.10 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Villanueva Pardillo defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Villanueva Pardillo attack 0.90 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Flat Earth scores more
42%
level
30%
Villanueva Pardillo scores more
28%

Flat Earth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flat Earth 1 – 0 Villanueva Pardillo

Flat Earth beat Villanueva Pardillo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.