Flat Earth vs Santa Ana: Preview & Prediction

Flat Earth

CANC

22:00

Santa Ana

5/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth53%

×Draw25%

Santa Ana22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Flat EarthExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.93

Flat Earth

1.59

Santa Ana

0.93

Flat Earth creates 71% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 31 away

1.25

creates per match

0.97

0.89

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Flat Earth

1.25

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Flat Earth

0.89

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Santa Ana →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw

78%

Flat Earth or Santa Ana

75%

Draw or Santa Ana

47%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+

28%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals

80%

Flat Earth 2+ goals

47%

Flat Earth 3+ goals

21%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

61%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

24%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)

71%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.59

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flat Earth scores more

53%

level

25%

Santa Ana scores more

22%

Flat Earth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flat Earth vs Santa Ana — Match Preview

Flat Earth face Santa Ana on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Flat Earth host Santa Ana at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Flat Earth vs Santa Ana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Flat Earth vs Santa Ana — Match Preview