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Flat Earth vs El Álamo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
El Álamo
El Álamo
11/2/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 11Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth53%
×Draw26%
El Álamo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.54
El Álamo
0.87

Flat Earth creates 77% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 47 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
El Álamo
0.85

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
El Álamo
1.83

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
El Álamo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

El Álamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
79%
Flat Earth or El Álamo
74%
Draw or El Álamo
47%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
28%
El Álamo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
79%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
45%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
20%
El Álamo 1+ goals
58%
El Álamo 2+ goals
22%
El Álamo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
71%
El Álamo (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

El Álamo away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.83 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + El Álamo defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.54

El Álamo attack 0.85 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Flat Earth scores more
53%
level
26%
El Álamo scores more
21%

Flat Earth at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Flat Earth 2 – 0 El Álamo

Flat Earth beat El Álamo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on November 2, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.