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Flat Earth vs Alcorcón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Flat Earth
Flat Earth
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcón II
Alcorcón II
10/5/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 7Campo de Fútbol Castroserna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Flat Earth38%
×Draw29%
Alcorcón II33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flat Earth
1.18
Alcorcón II
1.07

Flat Earth creates 10% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 97 away

creates per match

Flat Earth
1.25
Alcorcón II
1.26

allows per match

Flat Earth
0.89
Alcorcón II
1.10

finishing

Flat Earth+0.00on par
Alcorcón II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flat Earth ↓

Alcorcón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Flat Earth or draw
67%
Flat Earth or Alcorcón II
71%
Draw or Alcorcón II
62%

Winning margin

Flat Earth wins by 2+
16%
Alcorcón II wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Flat Earth 1+ goals
69%
Flat Earth 2+ goals
33%
Flat Earth 3+ goals
12%
Alcorcón II 1+ goals
66%
Alcorcón II 2+ goals
29%
Alcorcón II 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Flat Earth (draw refunded)
54%
Alcorcón II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flat Earth at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.89 · 28 matches

Alcorcón II away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.10 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flat Earth attack 1.25 + Alcorcón II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.18

Alcorcón II attack 1.26 + Flat Earth defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Flat Earth scores more
38%
level
29%
Alcorcón II scores more
33%

Flat Earth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Flat Earth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7: Flat Earth 1–1 Alcorcón II

Flat Earth and Alcorcón II drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol Castroserna in Madrid.