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Flandria vs Deportivo Merlo — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Flandria
Flandria
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Merlo
3/17/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 8Estadio Carlos V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Flandria45%
×Draw29%
Deportivo Merlo26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flandria
1.23
Deportivo Merlo
0.87

Flandria creates 41% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 103 away

creates per match

Flandria
1.21
Deportivo Merlo
0.92

allows per match

Flandria
0.82
Deportivo Merlo
1.25

finishing

Flandria+0.00on par
Deportivo Merlo+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flandria ↓

Deportivo Merlo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Flandria or draw
74%
Flandria or Deportivo Merlo
71%
Draw or Deportivo Merlo
55%

Winning margin

Flandria wins by 2+
20%
Deportivo Merlo wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Flandria 1+ goals
71%
Flandria 2+ goals
35%
Flandria 3+ goals
13%
Deportivo Merlo 1+ goals
58%
Deportivo Merlo 2+ goals
22%
Deportivo Merlo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Flandria (draw refunded)
63%
Deportivo Merlo (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flandria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 107 matches

Deportivo Merlo away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.25 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flandria attack 1.21 + Deportivo Merlo defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Deportivo Merlo attack 0.92 + Flandria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Flandria scores more
45%
level
29%
Deportivo Merlo scores more
26%

Flandria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Flandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Flandria 0–2 Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Merlo beat Flandria 2-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on March 17, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos V in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.