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Flandria vs Colegiales — Primera B Metropolitana 2026

Flandria
Flandria
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Colegiales
Colegiales
2/10/2024Primera B MetropolitanaPrimera B Metropolitana · Apertura - 2Estadio Carlos V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 107+ matches

Flandria40%
×Draw29%
Colegiales31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flandria
1.19
Colegiales
1.00

Flandria creates 19% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 108 away

creates per match

Flandria
1.21
Colegiales
1.19

allows per match

Flandria
0.82
Colegiales
1.16

finishing

Flandria+0.00on par
Colegiales+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flandria ↓

Colegiales →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Flandria or draw
69%
Flandria or Colegiales
71%
Draw or Colegiales
60%

Winning margin

Flandria wins by 2+
17%
Colegiales wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flandria 1+ goals
70%
Flandria 2+ goals
33%
Flandria 3+ goals
12%
Colegiales 1+ goals
63%
Colegiales 2+ goals
26%
Colegiales 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Flandria (draw refunded)
57%
Colegiales (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flandria at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 107 matches

Colegiales away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.16 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flandria attack 1.21 + Colegiales defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.19

Colegiales attack 1.19 + Flandria defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Flandria scores more
40%
level
29%
Colegiales scores more
31%

Flandria at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Flandria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera B Metropolitana: Flandria 0–0 Colegiales

Flandria and Colegiales drew 0-0 in Primera B Metropolitana on February 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos V in Luján, Provincia de Buenos Aires.