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Flamurtari vs Vushtrria — Cup 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vushtrria
Vushtrriaadvanced
12/4/2025CupCup · Round of 32

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Flamurtari21%
×Draw21%
Vushtrria58%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.22
Vushtrria
2.13

Vushtrria creates 75% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
0.00
Vushtrria
1.00

allows per match

Flamurtari
3.25
Vushtrria
2.43

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Vushtrria+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Vushtrria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
42%
Flamurtari or Vushtrria
79%
Draw or Vushtrria
79%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
8%
Vushtrria wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
70%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
34%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
12%
Vushtrria 1+ goals
88%
Vushtrria 2+ goals
63%
Vushtrria 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
27%
Vushtrria (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 0.00, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

Vushtrria away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 0.00 + Vushtrria defence 2.43 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vushtrria attack 1.00 + Flamurtari defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Flamurtari scores more
21%
level
21%
Vushtrria scores more
58%

Vushtrria at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Vushtrria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Vushtrria

Vushtrria beat Flamurtari 2-0 in Cup on December 4, 2025.