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Flamurtari vs Turbina Cërrik — 1st Division 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Turbina Cërrik
Turbina Cërrik
11/4/20201st Division1st Division · Round 1Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Flamurtari61%
×Draw23%
Turbina Cërrik16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.75
Turbina Cërrik
0.76

Flamurtari creates 130% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 52 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.57
Turbina Cërrik
0.83

allows per match

Flamurtari
0.70
Turbina Cërrik
1.92

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Turbina Cërrik+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Turbina Cërrik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
84%
Flamurtari or Turbina Cërrik
77%
Draw or Turbina Cërrik
39%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
35%
Turbina Cërrik wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
83%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
52%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
25%
Turbina Cërrik 1+ goals
53%
Turbina Cërrik 2+ goals
18%
Turbina Cërrik 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
79%
Turbina Cërrik (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Turbina Cërrik away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.92 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Turbina Cërrik defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.75

Turbina Cërrik attack 0.83 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Flamurtari scores more
61%
level
23%
Turbina Cërrik scores more
16%

Flamurtari at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Turbina Cërrik

Flamurtari and Turbina Cërrik drew 0-0 in 1st Division on November 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.