Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Flamurtari vs Trepça'89 — Superliga 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
4 – 3
Trepça'89
Trepça'89
2/16/2020SuperligaSuperliga · Round 18Stadiumi i Flamurtarit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Flamurtari51%
×Draw23%
Trepça'8927%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.88
Trepça'89
1.31

Flamurtari creates 44% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 53 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.56
Trepça'89
1.25

allows per match

Flamurtari
1.38
Trepça'89
2.19

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Trepça'89+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Trepça'89 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
73%
Flamurtari or Trepça'89
77%
Draw or Trepça'89
49%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
28%
Trepça'89 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
85%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
56%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
29%
Trepça'89 1+ goals
73%
Trepça'89 2+ goals
38%
Trepça'89 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
65%
Trepça'89 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Trepça'89 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.56 + Trepça'89 defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.88

Trepça'89 attack 1.25 + Flamurtari defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Flamurtari scores more
51%
level
23%
Trepça'89 scores more
27%

Flamurtari at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Trepça'89

Flamurtari beat Trepça'89 4-3 in Superliga on February 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadiumi i Flamurtarit in Priština.