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Flamurtari vs Tërbuni Pukë — 1st Division 2019

Flamurtari
Flamurtari
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Tërbuni Pukë
Tërbuni Pukë
10/16/20221st Division1st Division · Round 6Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Flamurtari57%
×Draw28%
Tërbuni Pukë16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Flamurtari
1.40
Tërbuni Pukë
0.60

Flamurtari creates 133% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 39 away

creates per match

Flamurtari
1.57
Tërbuni Pukë
0.51

allows per match

Flamurtari
0.70
Tërbuni Pukë
1.23

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par
Tërbuni Pukë+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Tërbuni Pukë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw
84%
Flamurtari or Tërbuni Pukë
72%
Draw or Tërbuni Pukë
43%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+
28%
Tërbuni Pukë wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals
75%
Flamurtari 2+ goals
41%
Flamurtari 3+ goals
17%
Tërbuni Pukë 1+ goals
45%
Tërbuni Pukë 2+ goals
12%
Tërbuni Pukë 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)
78%
Tërbuni Pukë (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Tërbuni Pukë away — creates 0.51, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Tërbuni Pukë defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.40

Tërbuni Pukë attack 0.51 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Flamurtari scores more
57%
level
28%
Tërbuni Pukë scores more
16%

Flamurtari at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Flamurtari vs Tërbuni Pukë

Flamurtari beat Tërbuni Pukë 3-0 in 1st Division on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Stadiumi Flamurtari in Vlorë.