Flamurtari 3–0 Oriku: Result & Stats | 1st Division

Flamurtari

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Oriku

10/30/2022

1st Division · Round 8Stadiumi Flamurtari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Flamurtari58%

×Draw27%

Oriku14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FlamurtariExpected goals in this matchOriku

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.55

Flamurtari

1.42

Oriku

0.55

Flamurtari creates 158% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 40 away

1.57

creates per match

0.40

0.70

allows per match

1.27

creates per match

Flamurtari

1.57

Oriku

0.40

allows per match

Flamurtari

0.70

Oriku

1.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Flamurtari+0.00on par

Oriku+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Flamurtari ↓

Oriku →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

31%69%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Flamurtari or draw

86%

Flamurtari or Oriku

73%

Draw or Oriku

42%

Winning margin

Flamurtari wins by 2+

30%

Oriku wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Flamurtari 1+ goals

76%

Flamurtari 2+ goals

41%

Flamurtari 3+ goals

17%

Oriku 1+ goals

42%

Oriku 2+ goals

11%

Oriku 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Flamurtari (draw refunded)

80%

Oriku (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Flamurtari at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Oriku away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.27 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Flamurtari attack 1.57 + Oriku defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.42

Oriku attack 0.40 + Flamurtari defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Flamurtari scores more

58%

level

27%

Oriku scores more

14%

Flamurtari at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Flamurtari will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff